2016 Four Continents Championships: A Preview
SYWTW FS
Four Continents is coming up soon and boasts some very interesting fields this year, especially in the singles disciplines. Here are some of my thoughts on the competitors!
MEN
Even with the absence of reigning Olympic and GPF champion Yuzuru Hanyu, who chose to skip 4CC in order to focus on the World Championships, the men’s field at 4CC is ridiculously deep this year. I would not be surprised if the top 6 men all score higher than the silver medalist at Euros. If everyone skates well, this competition could be very exciting.
One of the favorites in this field is 2014 Olympic silver medalist Patrick Chan (CAN; SP | FS), who returned to competition this season after taking the 2014-15 season off. Patrick had major problems with his short program on the GP and failed to medal at the GPF because he bombed his SP, but his free skates have been solid all season, and he’s coming off a couple of strong performances at Canadian Nationals in January. He has two 4Ts in his free skate and has decided to add a second 3A at 4CC. Patrick will be looking for two more solid performances at 4CC to build momentum going into Worlds. He is nearly guaranteed to make the podium and has a high chance of winning the competition outright if he can skate two decent programs.
2014 Olympic bronze medalist and defending 4CC champion Denis Ten (KAZ; SP | FS) had his usual messy fall season, but looked to be regaining his form at the Golden Spin of Zagreb in December. Denis is known for being a disaster on the GP but peaking during the second half of the season, and if he can skate up to his full potential, he is pretty much a lock for the 4CC podium. He reportedly wants to add another quad to his free skate (for a total of 3); whether he will do so at 4CC remains to be seen. (Withdrew Feb. 17)
2015 Junior World Champion Shoma Uno (JPN; SP | FS) has made waves in the skating world lately, winning the GPF bronze medal in his first senior season. Shoma made his senior international debut at 4CC last season, where he placed 2nd in the short program and 5th overall. He is no doubt capable of a higher placement this year, but the competition will still be tough. Shoma is a good performer, has strong skating skills and is generally consistent, but he is not immune to mistakes, and in a field like this there is not much room for error. Like most other men at 4CC, he includes two 4Ts in his free skate and one in his short program. It will be crucial for him to avoid popping any of his jumps if he wants a place on the podium.
2015 Junior World silver medalist Boyang Jin (CHN; SP | FS) has likewise turned heads in his senior debut season. A jumping prodigy, Boyang boasts a whopping 6 quads across two programs - 2 in the SP and 4 in the FS. He can execute 3 different types of quads and is the only skater to consistently land quad lutzes in competition. His enormous base value is his greatest asset, allowing him to score high even with mistakes, but he is much weaker PCS-wise than many other skaters in this field. However, if he lands most of his jumps, he has a very good shot at the 4CC podium. Boyang placed 5th at the GPF and recently won the Chinese Winter Games, where he performed a nearly clean free skate.
2014 4CC champion Takahito Mura (JPN; SP | FS) is coming off two solid performances at Japanese Nationals, where he won the bronze medal. He has excellent jumps when he’s on and a decent shot at the podium if he skates well and a couple other skaters make mistakes. Unfortunately, since Japanese men only have two World spots this year, Takahito did not make the World team, but he will no doubt want to end his season on a good note at 4CC.
Defending 4CC bronze medalist Han Yan (CHN; SP | FS) has some of the best skating skills and jumps in the field, but struggles with consistency. He is capable of making the podium again if he’s on, but it’s hard to tell what state Han will show up in at any given competition. He recently had a strong free skate at the Chinese Winter Games, placing second behind Boyang.
Current national silver medalist Max Aaron (USA; SP | FS) got his season off to a great start by winning Skate America, and skated decently at US Nationals as well. Max has a fairly consistent 4S, however, he has to watch out for errors on his other elements that could cost him points.
Grant Hochstein (USA; SP | FS) and Keiji Tanaka (JPN; SP | FS) have both had breakthrough seasons so far, placing 4th at their respective national championships. Though their chances at a medal seem slim unless some really weird stuff happens (which is always possible in skating), they have the potential to place quite well at 4CC if they continue to skate as strongly as they have all season.
After Adam Rippon’s withdrawal, Ross Miner (USA; SP | FS) took his place at 4CC. Although he does not have a consistent quad, Ross is a well-rounded skater who medaled on the Grand Prix this season - but with lower technical content, he will really need to nail his jumps for a good placement.
Also keep an eye on Kevin Reynolds (CAN; SP | FS), who is returning to 4CC for the first time since he won it in 2013. Kevin has struggled with injuries and boot problems the last few seasons but recently made a decent comeback at Canadian Nationals.
LADIES
Russia, Japan and USA have dominated the ladies’ field for the last couple of seasons, and it’s going to be a Japan vs. USA battle again at this year’s 4CC. Japan’s Satoko Miyahara will face off against USA’s Gracie Gold, while many other talented skaters will also fight for a spot on the podium.
Consistency is Satoko Miyahara’s (JPN; SP | FS) middle name. Flawless save for an edge call at the last 3 competitions she participated in, the reigning World silver medalist has really put herself on the map this season, winning the NHK Trophy, the silver medal at the GPF, and her second Japanese National title in a row. Satoko has strong musicality and is a well-rounded skater with great programs, but is prone to getting underrotation calls on her jumps. She will need to make sure her jumps are absolutely rotated in order to claim the 4CC title that eluded her last season and to set herself up for the World Championships.
It’s been an up-and-down season for Gracie Gold (USA; SP | FS), to no one’s surprise. After a somewhat shaky GP season and a 5th-place finish at the GPF due to a dismal free skate, Gracie pulled herself together at the US National Championships with a clean free skate and won her second national title. She is absolutely capable of winning 4CC if she’s clean or nearly so and will definitely want to avoid another meltdown like at last season’s 4CC, where she finished 4th. It should be an interesting fight between Gracie and Satoko for the title if both skate well.
Defending 4CC bronze medalist Rika Hongo (JPN; SP | FS) has improved many aspects of her skating this season, especially her choreography. Although mistakes here and there cost her placements at some competitions, she is a fairly consistent skater overall and has a good shot at the 4CC podium if she can skate as well as she did at Cup of China earlier this season, where she finished 2nd with personal best scores. Rika is coming off of a strong performance at the Japanese National Winter Sports Festival in January, where she won with two clean programs.
Reigning 4CC champion and national silver medalist Polina Edmunds (USA; SP | FS) has a good chance of making the 4CC podium again if she’s mostly clean, but a lot will come down to how the technical panel call her jump rotations. (Withdrew Feb. 12)
The last few seasons have sometimes been a struggle, but Mirai Nagasu (USA; SP | FS) never stopped fighting back. This season has been one of her strongest; she finished 5th at NHK Trophy and recently took 4th place at the US National Championships. Her jump rotations - and placement - are often up to the mercy of the technical panel, but if there’s one thing to be said for Mirai this season, she’s not going down without a fight. Mirai was added to the 4CC team after Ashley Wagner’s withdrawal; she did not make the World team, but will be looking for a satisfying finish to her season at 4CC.
After winning 4CC in 2014, Kanako Murakami (JPN; SP | FS) started to hit some rough patches in her career. Kanako is an expressive, well-rounded skater who wears her heart on her sleeve and a smile on her face, but she has been plagued with pops, underrotations and generally inconsistent jumps for the last two seasons. She recently got new boots, not expecting to be added to the 4CC team after Mao Asada’s withdrawal, and adjusting to them in time for 4CC may prove to be a challenge. Nevertheless, Kanako is capable of a good placement at 4CC as long as she isn’t a total disaster and will also be looking to end her season on a good note.
As is quickly becoming a trend with this field, Zijun Li (CHN; SP | FS) is also a lovely skater who is prone to underrotations and inconsistency, but her recent performances at a domestic competition - where she won with two nearly-clean programs - are hopefully a sign of better things to come. Zijun’s main struggles are with URs, pops and lack of stamina, but after changing her jump layouts and rechoreographing her FS, she gave her strongest performances in quite a while at the Chinese Winter Games. She placed 5th at 4CC last season and is capable of replicating that placement this year with some mistakes from other skaters, but she will really need to be on her game.
Added to the 4CC team after Polina Edmunds’ withdrawal, Karen Chen (USA; SP | FS) will be looking for some personal redemption after a rather poor showing at the 2016 US National Championships. Karen has had an up-and-down senior debut season, but she is a dramatic, expressive skater and capable of putting up some pretty good scores when she’s on. Unfortunately, she is hampered by inconsistency and her persistent boot problems this season haven’t helped her any. Hopefully she will be able to have a satisfying performance at her senior ISU Championship debut.
The Canadian ladies might be the dark horses in this field - Alaine Chartrand (SP | FS) recently won the Canadian National Championships with very strong performances. Although she can be inconsistent, she has the technical content to place pretty high at 4CC if she can repeat her performances from Nationals. Teammate Kaetlyn Osmond (SP | FS) is making a return this season after a string of injuries and has had a rough time so far, but her high PCS will help her out even if her jumps aren’t quite there.
It’s been a hard season so far for So Youn Park (KOR; SP | FS), a lovely skater with the potential for brilliance but inconsistent jumps. After returning to her Romeo and Juliet free skate from last season, So Youn finished 5th at South Korean Nationals, but rebounded with two nearly clean skates at another domestic competition. Hopefully she will be able to repeat those performances at 4CC. Teammate Da Bin Choi (SP | FS), on the other hand, has had a very strong season so far, winning two bronze medals on the Junior Grand Prix and placing 2nd at South Korean Nationals. Although weaker in components than So Youn, Da Bin has more consistent jumps. Da Bin will make her senior ISU Championship debut at 4CC and is also headed to the World Championships later this season, along with So Youn.
PAIRS
With only 10 entries in total, the pairs discipline has the smallest field at 4CC, and three countries (Canada, China, and USA) will inevitably dominate the competition. One interesting thing to watch out for is Sui/Han’s return to competition following injury.
Reigning 4CC and World champions Meagan Duhamel and Eric Radford (CAN; SP | FS) are the likely favorites at this competition, but their performances this season have been a bit spotty, and they lost the GPF to the Russian team Stolbova/Klimov earlier this season. However, they have some of the most technically ambitious programs in the field, including SBS triple lutzes and a 4S throw, and are likely to win 4CC again as long as they are not a disaster.
After missing the GPF due to injury, Wenjing Sui and Cong Han (CHN; SP | FS) are competing internationally for the first time this season since Cup of China. At their best, the reigning World silver medalists have arguably the best throws in the entire pairs field and are capable of a throw 4S, but complications due to Wenjing’s chronic ankle injuries have forced the team to shelve that element for most of the season, and they have not yet attempted it in international competition. Their performances at 4CC might depend a lot on Wenjing’s condition - although Sui/Han recently performed very well at the Chinese Winter Games in January, there’s no telling what shape Wenjing’s ankles might be in by 4CC. Nevertheless, Sui/Han are a highly expressive team with excellent programs and are captivating to watch. They are one of only two teams in this field who can perform a quad twist.
2015 Junior World silver medalists Julianne Seguin and Charlie Bilodeau (CAN; SP | FS) have made huge strides in their first senior season, qualifying for the GPF and finishing 4th with very strong performances. They continued their upward trajectory at Canadian Nationals, finishing in second place behind Duhamel/Radford. Their biggest strength is their consistency, and if they continue to skate as well as they have all season, a place on the 4CC podium is well within their reach. (Withdrew Feb. 11)
After a difficult Grand Prix run, Lubov Iliushechkina and Dylan Moscovitch (CAN; SP | FS) came back stronger at the Canadian National Championships, winning the bronze medal. Iliushechkina/Moscovitch are an enjoyable team with good programs and great lifts, but Lubov often struggles with their SBS jumps. They are capable of a high placement at 4CC, but nailing their jumping elements will be key.
In a somewhat surprising upset, Tarah Kayne and Daniel O'Shea (USA; SP | FS) defeated previous champions Scimeca/Knierim at the 2016 US National Championships with two clean performances. Although they do not have a lot of international recognition, Kayne/O'Shea have been steadily improving all season and 4CC will be the perfect opportunity for them to make a name for themselves on the international stage. They have attempted the 4S throw in practice, but have not yet included it in competition.
National silver medalists Alexa Scimeca and Chris Knierim (USA; SP | FS) may have lost the US title to Kayne/O'Shea, but for now, they still have the most international rep out of all the US pairs and are capable of placing high at 4CC if they skate well. Their main weakness is their SBS jumps, but besides Sui/Han, they are the only other team in the 4CC field who can perform a quad twist.
Two-time Junior World Champions Xiaoyu Yu and Yang Jin (CHN; SP | FS) placed 5th at the GPF for the last two seasons in a row, but 2016 4CC will be their debut at a senior ISU Championship. They are a lovely, musical team with a quiet and introverted style and are usually relatively consistent. Unfortunately, Xiaoyu was waylaid by a leg injury in late December and was still struggling with jumps and stamina at the Chinese Winter Games in late January. Their performance at 4CC will likely depend on her condition. Yu/Jin have attempted the 4S throw several times this season, but have never landed it in competition. Due to Xiaoyu’s injury, they might decide to exclude that element at 4CC.
National bronze medalists Marissa Castelli and Mervin Tran (USA; SP | FS) have both been successful in the past with different partners, but 2016 4CC will be their ISU Championship debut with each other. Lack of consistency - especially on Mervin’s SBS jumps - has been their main issue since teaming up in 2014, but when they’re on, they are a quality team with considerable potential. 4CC will be a good opportunity for them to gain more experience, and hopefully consistency, together.
ICE DANCE
The 4CC ice dance podium will likely consist of Weaver/Poje, Chock/Bates and the Shibutanis, but the order is less predictable. Will the ShibSibs maintain their edge over Chock/Bates? I don’t know, but I’m excited to find out.
Two-time world medalists and current GPF champions Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje (CAN; SD | FD) are the strongest team in this field and will likely win the competition. They’ll be looking for two strong performances at 4CC as a springboard for the World Championships, where they will be gunning for the title against Papadakis/Cizeron of France.
It’s been a bit of a breakthrough season for Maia and Alex Shibutani (USA; SD | FD), who won the bronze medal at the 2011 World Championships, but suffered from inconsistency in the years after. They’ve come back strong this season with great programs and recently won their first US National title, defeating domestic rivals Chock/Bates. While winning 4CC is probably a long shot, the Shibs will want to keep their momentum going with strong performances heading into Worlds. It will definitely be interesting to see how the judges receive them after their national title and how they will fare against Chock/Bates on the international stage.
Despite their loss to the Shibutanis at Nationals, Madison Chock and Evan Bates (USA; SD | FD) are the current GPF silver medalists and World silver medalists, giving them a strong international reputation. Reasserting themselves at 4CC will no doubt help them as they aim for another podium finish at the World Championships in Boston.
After a somewhat disappointing 2014-15 season, Madison Hubbell and Zachary Donohue (USA; SD | FD) switched coaches and have had a relatively solid 2015-16 season so far, qualifying for the GPF and winning the bronze medal at US Nationals. A spot on the 4CC podium seems unlikely unless one of the top teams bomb, but Hubbell/Donohue are probably set for 4th place if they continue to skate well.
Current national silver medalists Piper Gilles and Paul Poirier (CAN; SD | FD) placed 4th at 4CC last season. Unless the top teams make major mistakes, they’ll be competing for 4th once again this year against Hubbell/Donohue.