Olympic Figure Skating Preview: Ladies

Part 2 of my Olympics preview posts. This post will cover the ladies’ individual event! Quick intros and opinions under the cut.

Ladies’ figure skating experienced a temporary technical decline after the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, but in the last couple of seasons, the field has become very, very competitive. There’s a whole host of experienced veterans and talented young rookies vying for the Olympic podium in Sochi. Most top ladies these days attempt triple-triple jump combinations (or in Mao Asada’s case, the triple axel). Basically, it’s going to be a hell of a fight.

Note, again, that when I talk about program component scores in this post I’m usually referring to how judges tend to score skaters regardless of whether those scores are deserved.

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YUNA KIM

Representing: S. Korea
Age: 23
Season’s best score: n/a
Personal best score: 228.56 (Olympics ‘10)
Notable titles: 2010 Olympic champ, two-time World champ, 3-time GPF champ, 2009 4CC champ
Music: Send in the Clowns (SP), Adios Nonino (FS)

You’ve heard of her. Yuna is the reigning Olympic champion and first figure skater from South Korea to win the Olympics, Worlds, anything. Massively popular in her home country, Yuna has basically reached superstar status. After winning the Vancouver Olympics, though, she left her coach and has never competed a full season in the last four years. For a while, she struggled with motivation to keep competing. However, every time she did compete, she has put out good performances and won medals. She is the reigning World champion, having won her second World title last year.

Yuna hasn’t competed in a major ISU competition this season but looked to be in good shape at Korean Nationals, and on track to winning her second Olympic title. She generally receives the highest PCS from judges in the current ladies’ field and the quality and difficulty of her jumps gain high technical scores as well. Her jump layout is actually a bit conservative compared to some other ladies’, but she can rely on her high PCS and grades of execution to come out ahead. In the past she’s struggled with skating a clean free program and she is not invulnerable to mistakes, but she can afford a mistake and still win. Even if she doesn’t win, I doubt she will be off the podium.

Known for her expressive arms, speed, power, and enormous 3F3T and 3Lz3T combos, some of the hardest jump combinations in ladies’ skating. She has announced that this will be her last competitive season.

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MAO ASADA

Representing: Japan
Age: 23
Season’s best score: 207.59 (NHK '13)
Personal best score: 207.59 (NHK '13)
Notable titles: 2010 Olympic silver medalist, two-time World champ, 4-time GPF champ, 3-time 4CC champ, 6-time National champ
Music: Chopin’s Nocturne in E-flat major (SP), Rachmaninoff’s Piano Concerto No.2 (FS)

The reigning Olympic silver medalist and Japan’s darling. Mao is one of the most popular athletes in Japan and one of their most accomplished figure skaters in a country that has a huge wealth of skating talent. She is the first lady to land 3 triple axel jumps in a competition. But she’s had her share of pain and heartbreak in the last four years. After the last Olympic season she switched coaches and began relearning her jumps from scratch, since her previous jumping technique was causing her to gradually lose her jumps. She had some disastrous results in the 2010-2011 season because of the reworking process and finished only 6th at Worlds.

Mao started to make a bit of a comeback in 2011-2012, qualifying for the Grand Prix Final, but withdrew after learning that her mother had passed away from a chronic liver disease. She finished 6th again at Worlds that season and seriously considered retiring. After spending some time away from training, she regained her love for skating and had a successful 2012-2013 season, winning the bronze at 2013 Worlds.

Mao looks stronger this season than she has in years and has won all of her international competitions this season, posting new personal best scores at NHK Trophy. She had a poor free skate at Nationals and finished third, but in general she has done pretty well. She is the only currently competing lady to attempt triple axels in her programs, including one in her short program and two in her free skate. However, she rarely lands clean 3As and she often has problems with underrotated or popped jumps. Her programs are incredibly risky and she has not skated a clean free program all season. She gets high PCS and her scoring potential is huge if she can skate clean, but her chances of skating clean are very small, and she would need to be clean to have a chance at beating Yuna at her best. Mao has a decent chance for a medal, but if she has a bad day, other ladies could knock her off the podium.

Known for her graceful, balletic style, musicality, and triple axels. Her short program is one of my favorite programs this season. She has also announced that this will probably be her last competitive season.

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JULIA LIPNITSKAIA

Representing: Russia
Age: 15
Season’s best score: 209.72 (Euros '14)
Personal best score: 209.72 (Euros '14)
Notable titles: 2014 European champ, 2013 GPF silver medalist, 2012 Jr. World champ
Music: You Don’t Give Up on Love (SP), Schindler’s List (FS)

Julia is one of Russia’s 2355624234524 frighteningly competent young female skaters. Since winning everything as a junior in the 2011-2012 season, Julia has never looked back. She is one of the youngest female skaters competing in Sochi, just making the age cutoff. This season she has won two Grand Prix events, finished second at the Grand Prix Final, second at Russian Nationals, and first at the European Championships with personal best scores. She is one of the most consistent skaters competing in the field, easily reeling off 3Lz3T combos and technically demanding programs. She has only had one poor free skate this entire season. Since the Olympics are in Russia, you can count on her PCS to be incredibly high. She is not immune to mistakes, especially since this is her first Olympics and in her home country, but if I had to pick, I would pick her for a medal.

Known for her hyperflexibility, spins, consistency and tendency to be scary competitive one moment and cute the next.

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ADELINA SOTNIKOVA

Representing: Russia
Age: 17
Season’s best score: 202.36 (Euros '14)
Personal best score: 202.36 (Euros '14)
Notable titles: 2-time European silver medalist, 4-time National champ, 2011 Jr. World champ
Music: Carmen (SP), Introduction & Rondo Capriccioso (FS)

Another talented young Russian lady in medal contention, Adelina’s biggest enemy is usually herself. If clean, she could score higher than Julia, but her meltdown potential is also very high. She could medal or bomb herself down to ninth. She has been up and down ever since she began competing on the senior level. Nevertheless, she is probably one of the most mature skaters among the Russian ladies, and you can count on her to get very high PCS at her home Olympics as well. It all comes down to whether she headcases or not. Adelina has attempted 3Lz3Lo combinations in competition, one of the most difficult triple-triple combinations possible, but most of her attempts have been called underrotated.

Known for her flexibility, spins, beautiful extension on spirals and fierce personality in her programs.

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CAROLINA KOSTNER

Representing: Italy
Age: 27
Season’s best score: 191.39 (Euros '14)
Personal best score: 197.89 (Worlds '13)
Notable titles: 2012 World champ, 5-time European champ, 2011 GPF champ
Music: Ave Maria (SP), Bolero (FS)

One of the oldest skaters competing in this field, Carolina has the benefit of experience and a mature, sophisticated style. She is the first Italian skater to have won Worlds in ladies’ singles. Sochi will be her third Olympics and hopefully her best one; she had poor performances in Torino and Vancouver but I expect her to do much better this time. She didn’t have a great Grand Prix season and finished third at Europeans behind Julia and Adelina, but don’t count her out for a medal. Carolina’s disadvantage is in her technical content and she pretty much never skates a clean free program, but her PCS is very high and if she can land most of her jumps, she has a chance to medal.

Known for her skating skills, speed, musicality and expressiveness.

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AKIKO SUZUKI

Representing: Japan
Age: 28
Season’s best score: 193.75 (SC '13)
Personal best score: 199.58 (WTT '13)
Notable titles: 2012 World bronze medalist, 3-time GPF medalist, 2-time 4CC medalist, 2013 National champ
Music: Hymne à l'amour (SP), The Phantom of the Opera (FS)

Akiko is living proof that age is just a number. At 28, she is the oldest skater competing in this field, but over time she’s just gotten better and better. She competed in her first Olympics when she was 24, landed her first triple-triple and medaled at Worlds at 26, and won her first National title this season with stunning performances. Unfortunately, in the past she’s consistently been underscored, but her PCS is looking up this season and going into the Olympics as the reigning Japanese National Champ should help a bit. Akiko has pretty high scoring potential and a chance to medal if she’s clean, but it also depends on how the other ladies skate. She is probably a good pick for top 10, unless she’s a disaster. She has a tendency to pop jumps, especially in her free skate, but the other ladies are not immune to this either. Sochi is her second Olympics, and she will retire after this season.

Known for her expressiveness, musicality and basically skating like joy incarnate.

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KANAKO MURAKAMI

Representing: Japan
Age: 19
Season’s best score: 196.91 (4CC '14)
Personal best score: 196.91 (4CC '14)
Notable titles: 2014 4CC champ, 2010 GPF bronze medalist, 2010 Jr. World champ, 2-time National silver medalist
Music: Violin Muse (SP), Papa, Can You Hear Me? (FS)

The youngest “sister” of the Three Sisters of Team Japan, Kanako is delightful to watch for the conviction and attack in her programs and her adorable/amazing kiss n’ cry reactions. She finished fifth at Worlds in 2012 and fourth in 2013. She did poorly on the Grand Prix this season, but after switching her short program back to an older (and better) program, she nailed two clean programs at Nationals and won her second National silver medal. She just won the Four Continents title a few days ago with two more clean programs and personal best scores despite skating with pain in her foot from skate boot problems. If her injury doesn’t bother her at the Olympics, she might have a shot at a medal if she’s clean, but it would depend on how the other ladies do. She tends to be underscored in PCS and gets underrotation calls, which doesn’t help. Probably a pretty good chance for top 10, though.

Known for her rock-solid 3T3T combo, energy, expressiveness, and adorable smile.

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ASHLEY WAGNER

Representing: USA
Age: 22
Season’s best score: 194.37 (TEB '13)
Personal best score: 194.37 (TEB '13)
Notable titles: 2012 4CC champ, 2-time GPF medalist, 2-time National champ
Music: Shine On, You Crazy Diamond (SP), Samson & Delilah (FS)

Ashley has been USA’s top lady for the last two seasons. She finished fourth at 2012 Worlds and fifth at 2013 Worlds, and was the first US lady since Michelle Kwan to win back-to-back National titles in 2012 and 2013. Her strongest points are her consistency and the way she attacks her programs. This season she began including the 3F3T combo in all her competitions and has struggled with underrotation calls and more mistakes than last season, but has done pretty well overall. She won a Grand Prix event and the bronze medal at the 2013 Grand Prix Final. Unfortunately, she had poor performances at Nationals and finished fourth, but was picked for the Olympic team based on the strength of her other results. Her free program this season used to be Romeo & Juliet but she decided to go back to her (better) free skate from last season for the Olympics. Ashley has a shot at a medal in Sochi if she’s clean, depending on how the other ladies skate. At the very least she has a good chance of top 10.

Known for her fierce personality in her programs and expert ponytail-whipping.

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GRACIE GOLD

Representing: USA
Age: 18
Season’s best score: 186.65 (SC '13)
Personal best score: 188.03 (WTT '13)
Notable titles: 2012 Jr. World silver medalist, 2014 National champ
Music: Grieg’s Piano Concerto (SP), Sleeping Beauty (FS)

The current US National Champ, which will probably help her PCS in Sochi. She includes a 3Lz3T in both her SP and FS. She has good scoring potential but also not insignificant meltdown potential. She might be able to medal if she’s clean and other ladies do badly. She can probably get top 10.

Known for annoyingly unfunny puns about her last name her jumps, when she lands them.

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ZIJUN LI

Representing: China
Age: 17
Season’s best score: 181.56 (4CC '14)
Personal best score: 183.85 (Worlds '13)
Notable titles: 2014 4CC bronze medalist, 3-time National champ
Music: Danzarin (SP), Coppelia (FS)

China’s most successful ladies’ singles skater since Lu Chen. Zijun made her senior debut last season and finished in the top five at every competition she competed in besides Worlds. She had an amazing free skate at 2013 Worlds, finishing fourth in that segment and seventh overall. Unfortunately, she had major struggles in the early part of this season - fighting injuries and growth spurts, she finished 10th at Cup of China and withdrew from her other Grand Prix. 2014 4CC a few days ago was her first return to competition since then, and she managed to lay my worries to rest by skating strongly in both SP and FS and winning the bronze medal there, becoming the first Chinese lady to medal at 4CC. Judges tend not to give her very high PCS but her programs have plenty of technical content; she includes a 3F3T combo in both SP and FS. If she lands most of her jumps she has a shot at top 10.

Known for her light and balletic quality on the ice, her adorable smile, and for taking lots of selfies. Team China/selfies OTP.

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KAETLYN OSMOND

Representing: Canada
Age: 18
Season’s best score: n/a
Personal best score: 176.82 (Worlds '13)
Notable titles: 2012 Skate Canada champ, 2-time National champ
Music: Big Spender (SP), Cleopatra (FS)

Kaetlyn is the reigning and two-time Canadian National Champ. She had a breakthrough last season, winning 2012 Skate Canada and placing in the top 10 at Worlds. Earlier this season she suffered a leg injury and withdrew from her Grand Prix events, but came back to win her second national title. The state of her jumps at the Olympics remains to be seen, but if she can land most of them, she could make the top 10.

Known for her complex transitions, energy, and speed.

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OTHER SKATERS TO WATCH:

These skaters probably won’t make top 10, but you should definitely pay attention to them because they’re lovely to watch.

Valentina Marchei (Italy)
Hae-jin Kim (S. Korea)
So-youn Park (S. Korea)
Brooklee Han (Australia)
Maé Bérénice Méité (France)
Elene Gedevanishvili (Georgia)