Olympic Figure Skating Preview: Men

As promised, the first of my Olympics preview posts! This is about the men’s individual event - I might make a post about the team event later if I feel like it. Quick bios and opinions under the cut.

Men’s figure skating has experienced an increase in technical content in the last four years. Most top skaters attempt quad jumps in competition; the norm these days seems to be one quad in the short program and two in the free program. You will not see a quadless skater win the Olympics like in Vancouver, I can pretty much guarantee this. (Of course, the focus on the quad brings up other issues, but that’s a discussion for another time.)

The incredibly risky programs that many of the top men are attempting these days means that the men’s event is very difficult to predict. So many skaters have the potential for huge scores, but also the potential for disaster. This makes the men’s event both exciting and nerve-wracking to watch. (Well, all the events are, in one way or another.) Men’s is actually my favorite discipline of skating, so trust me on this: it is going to be exciting.

Note that whenever I talk about program component scores in this post, I am talking about how judges tend to score skaters, whether those scores are deserved or not. (Yes, figure skating judging has problems.)

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PATRICK CHAN

Representing: Canada
Age: 23
Season’s best score: 295.27 (TEB ‘13)
Personal best score: 295.27 (TEB '13)
Notable titles: 3-time World Champion, 2-time GPF champion, 7-time national champion
Music: Rachmaninoff’s Elegie (SP), Vivaldi’s Four Seasons (FS)

Patrick Chan is the three-time and reigning world champion and goes into Sochi as the favorite (though surprisingly, not the overwhelming favorite). In the past he’s come under fire for winning competitions with multiple errors, but he’s been relatively stable this season, setting new personal bests and world records at 2013 TEB. He made major mistakes in the short program at the Grand Prix Final, though, and lost to Yuzuru Hanyu. But judges usually give him the highest PCS of the field and he could certainly win the Olympic title if he lands his jumps. His nemesis is the triple axel; he only does one in his free skate, relying on his two quads and clean jumps everywhere else to carry him to the Olympic title. Even if he doesn’t end up winning, I highly doubt he will be off the podium. Sochi will be his second Olympics.

Best known for his excellent skating skills, complex transitions and speed and power across the ice.

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YUZURU HANYU

Representing: Japan
Age: 19
Season’s best score: 293.25 (GPF '13)
Personal best score: 293.25 (GPF '13)
Notable titles: 2013 GPF champion, 2012 World bronze medalist, 2-time national champion
Music: Parisienne Walkways (SP), Romeo & Juliet by Rota (FS)

The reason why Patrick Chan isn’t the overwhelming favorite for the Olympic gold medal. Yuzuru beat Patrick at the 2013 Grand Prix Final after Patrick made major errors in the short program, and if Patrick should falter again at the Olympics, Yuzuru might be the one to grab the gold instead. He is the current holder of the short program world record and has one of the most ambitious free skates in the field today, with two different types of quads and two triple axels in the second half of the program, garnering him enormous technical points. He struggles to land the quad salchow - he’s only landed it once this season - but his quad toeloop is solid and his axels are even better. He’s received extremely high PCS at competitions in Japan but whether this continues in Russia remains to be seen. In any case, unless he makes major errors, I don’t see him off the podium. Yuzuru generally has nerves of steel but since this will be his first Olympics, he’s not invulnerable to mistakes.

Known for his triple axels and jumps in general, and complex spin positions. Shares a coach (Brian Orser) with Javier Fernandez as well as a friendly and adorable rivalry.

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DAISUKE TAKAHASHI

Representing: Japan
Age: 27
Season’s best score: 268.31 (NHK '13)
Personal best score: 276.72 (WTT '12)
Notable titles: 2010 Olympic bronze medalist, 2010 World champion, 2012 GPF champion, 5-time national champion
Music: Sonatina for Violin (SP), Beatles Medley (FS)

One of the most popular and well-liked skaters in Japan and possibly the world, Daisuke is the first Japanese man to medal at the Olympics and to win Worlds. With Patrick and Yuzuru probably taking up two spots on the podium, the third medal is up for grabs. Daisuke might be able to medal, but he’s struggled with consistency and injuries these last two seasons and has had trouble landing quads ever since a serious ACL injury in 2008. He’s been hot and cold this season, winning NHK Trophy but then withdrawing from GPF with a shin injury. He finished fifth at Nationals, still not fully recovered, but was named to the Olympic team based on his other competitions and world ranking. He has high scoring potential - two quads and two 3As in the free skate, but whether he can land them is another question. He also has consistency issues with his other jumps. He gets the second-highest PCS in the field after Patrick, so it’s really just a matter of landing his jumps. Being one of the oldest skaters in the field and the first Japanese skater to compete in 3 Olympics, just being in Sochi is already pretty impressive. He has announced that this will be his last competitive season.

Known for his electric step sequences, musicality and phenomenal performance ability. My personal favorite, but let’s be realistic here.

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JAVIER FERNANDEZ

Representing: Spain
Age: 22
Season’s best score: 267.11 (Euros '14)
Personal best score: 274.87 (Euros’ 13)
Notable titles: 2013 World bronze medalist, 2-time European champion
Music: Satan Takes a Holiday (SP), Peter Gunn/Harlem Nocturne (FS)

Spain’s first World medalist, first European champ, first…top skater at all, really. Javi began his rise in 2011-2012 when he switched coaches to Brian Orser. He’s established himself as a top contender and is one of the few skaters in the current field attempting 3 quads in his free program. If he can land most of his jumps, he could certainly make the podium. However, he’s also prone to melting down sometimes; he was dismal on the GP this season but rallied back with good skates at the European Championships a few weeks ago. Sochi will be his second Olympics.

Known for his quads and charming personality.

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TATSUKI MACHIDA

Representing: Japan
Age: 23
Season’s best score: 265.38 (SA '13)
Personal best score: 265.38 (SA '13)
Notable titles: 3-time Grand Prix winner, 2013 Japanese National silver medalist
Music: East of Eden (SP), The Firebird (FS)

A couple seasons ago, most people probably didn’t know who he was. Until this season, he’s never even medaled at Nationals. This season Tatsuki seems to have completely reinvented himself, including two quad toeloops in his free skate and landing them with remarkable consistency. Now he’s off to his first Olympics and might just win a medal there. Due to lack of name recognition, his PCS isn’t as high as some of the other guys’, but he makes up for it with technical skill and consistency. However, he’s also not immune to melting down - he used to be quite well-known for it, in fact - so. Not a sure bet for the podium, but definitely a possibility.

Known for his earnest and passionate performance ability and elaborate bowing after he finishes a program.

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EVGENI PLUSHENKO

Representing: Russia
Age: 31
Season’s best score: n/a
Personal best score: 261.23 (Euros '12)
Notable titles: 2006 Olympic champ, 2-time Olympic silver medalist, 3-time World champ, 7-time European champ, 4-time GPF champ, 10-time national champ
Music: Tango de Roxanne (SP), The Best of Plushenko (FS)

You’ve probably heard of him before. The oldest skater still competing in the men’s field, Plushenko has basically won everything at some point, and now he’s here for his historic fourth Olympics in his last season, which is pretty impressive already. Don’t necessarily count on him to medal again, though. He’s been through several injuries and surgeries throughout his career and is basically held together by duct tape at this point. He has barely competed in the last four years (though he did win 2012 Euros) and his condition remains a question mark. He lost Russian nationals this season to Maxim Kovtun but was picked for the Olympic team. Sochi being in Russia, his PCS will no doubt be through the roof, but it remains to be seen whether he can land the jumps. Since Russia only has one men’s spot for the Olympics, Plushenko would have to do the team event as well as the men’s individual event, which might be hard on him. With how unpredictable the men’s field is, though, you never know what might happen.

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JEREMY ABBOTT

Representing: USA
Age: 28
Season’s best score: 237.41 (NHK '13)
Personal best score: 238.82 (GPF '11)
Notable titles: 2008 GPF champ, 4-time national champ
Music: Lilies of the Valley (SP), Exogenesis Symphony (FS)

Another one of the older skaters in the current men’s field. Jeremy has beautiful skating and a lot of potential, but also a tendency to melt down at major competitions. He had very strong performances at Nationals, winning his fourth national title, and if he can repeat those performances in Sochi he might be able to sneak in for a medal if other guys do badly. Since he only includes one quad in his free skate and one in his short program, his technical content isn’t quite as high and he would need some help from other skaters to get onto the podium. He’s likely good for a top-10 finish, though. Sochi will be his second Olympics, and this will be his last competitive season.

Known for his expressiveness and musicality.

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DENIS TEN

Representing: Kazakhstan
Age: 20
Season’s best score: 226.37 (4CC '14)
Personal best score: 266.48 (Worlds '13)
Notable titles: 2013 World silver medalist
Music: Danse Macabre (SP), Lady and the Hooligan (FS)

Kazakhstan’s best skater since…ever. Denis made history when he won the silver medal - and nearly the gold - at 2013 Worlds with the best two programs he’d ever done in his life. Prior to that, he had never medaled at any major international competition due to headcasing or being injured all the time. He’s been sick and/or injured for most of this season and has posted uninspiring scores, but considering just how unpredictable the men’s field is, he might pull off another miracle in Sochi, which will be his second Olympics. He’s quite a pleasant skater to watch regardless, so pay attention to him.

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KEVIN REYNOLDS

Representing: Canada
Age: 23
Season’s best score: n/a
Personal best score: 250.55 (4CC '13)
Notable titles: 2013 4CC champ
Music: Back in Black/Thunderstruck (SP), Excelsius (FS)

Surprise winner of 4CC last season. Kevin is known for attempting 2 quads in the SP and 3 in the FS, but he’s also known for underrotating them, as well as his other jumps. He hasn’t competed at any international competitions yet this season because of skate boot problems. If last season’s 4CC is any indication, though, weird stuff can still happen at the Olympics, so who knows. Sochi will be his first Olympics.

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JASON BROWN

Representing: USA
Age: 19
Season’s best score: 243.09 (TEB '13)
Personal best score: 243.09 (TEB '13)
Notable titles: 2013 Junior World silver medalist, 2014 National silver medalist
Music: The Question of U (SP), Riverdance (FS)

You might have heard of him too, since his 2014 Nationals free skate to Riverdance went viral. Jason is a terribly fun skater to watch and his programs are packed with difficult transitions. He does not attempt any quads, but his consistency and the quality of his elements can garner him a lot of points. Judges like him and the audience likes him too. Sochi will be Jason’s first Olympics and he has a chance to make the top 10.

Known for his energetic performances, spins, difficult transitions, and adorable personality.

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MICHAL BREZINA

Representing: Czech Republic
Age: 23
Season’s best score: 236.98 (Euros '14)
Personal best score: 243.52 (Euros '13)
Notable titles: 2013 European bronze medalist
Music: In the Hall of the Mountain King (SP), Sherlock Holmes (FS)

Tends to be fourth at competitions with hilarious regularity, considering that he’s not terribly consistent or interesting. He could get top 10 if he doesn’t melt down. Sochi will be his second Olympics.

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TOMAS VERNER

Representing: Czech Republic
Age: 27
Season’s best score: 223.66 (Euros '14)
Personal best score: 232.67 (Euros’ 13)
Notable titles: 2008 European champ
Music: Dueling Banjos (SP), Tango Medley (FS)

Another one of the geezers (and I mean that in an affectionate way). Tomas is a delightful skater, especially in exhibitions, but tends to headcase in competitions. He was injured and pretty much disastrous the last two seasons but managed to regain some of his former self this season. He can also make the top 10 - or do even better - if he doesn’t melt down but that might be a big “if”…as I’ve said before, though, anything could happen in the men’s field. Sochi will be his third Olympics, and this will be his last competitive season.

Known for his performance ability and fun personality.

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BRIAN JOUBERT

Representing: France
Age: 29
Season’s best score: 221.95 (Euros '14)
Personal best score: 244.58 (Worlds '12)
Notable titles: 2007 World champ, 3-time European champ, 2006 GPF champ
Music: Amaluna from Cirque du Soleil (SP), Concierto de Aranjuez (FS)

The second-oldest skater in the men’s event after Plushenko, Brian will also be competing in his fourth Olympics. This is his last competitive season. He’s had problems lately with coaching changes, finding places to train, and his federation not allowing him to compete on the Grand Prix this season. He has a shot at making top 10 if he does well and other skaters do badly.

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FLORENT AMODIO

Representing: France
Age: 23
Season’s best score: 213.39 (COC '13)
Personal best score: 250.53 (Euros '13)
Notable titles: 2011 European champion
Music: La Cumparsita (SP), La vie en rose (FS)

Florent is a really talented and entertaining skater, but this season has been disastrous for him. He left his coach of the last three seasons and started reworking his jumps, but so far it seems like he’s lost all his jumps instead. If he could get it together, he might be able to make top 10, but at this point it seems more likely that he’ll finish far, far lower. But maybe he could pull off a miracle. (This might be wishful thinking.)

Known for great performance skills and personality in his programs, as well as stripping in exhibition galas.

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HAN YAN

Representing: China
Age: 17
Season’s best score: 245.62 (COC '13)
Personal best score: 245.62 (COC '13)
Notable titles: 2012 Jr. World champ, 2013 4CC bronze medalist, 2013 Cup of China champ
Music: Minor Waltz/Viper’s Drag (SP), Gourmet Valse Tartare (FS)

One of the youngest skaters competing in the men’s field at Sochi and China’s rising star, Han is the first Chinese man to win Junior Worlds as well as a Grand Prix event. He has maybe one of the best jump techniques in the field and his triple axel is especially impressive. He also has the best skating skills I’ve seen from a Chinese singles skater in a long time. On the flip side, he can also melt down quite spectacularly, and he gets sick really often. He has a chance to make top 10 if he can hold it together. Sochi will be his first Olympics, and being China’s only men’s entry, he has to compete in the team event as well, which may affect his performance in the individual event afterwards.

Known for his jumps (when he lands them), skating skills, speed, and power. Also known for taking lots of selfies. Pay attention to his short program; it’s one of my favorites this season.

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OTHER SKATERS TO WATCH:

These skaters aren’t likely to make the top 10, much less medal, but you should keep an eye out for them anyway because they’re fun.

Misha Ge (Uzbekistan)
Zoltan Kelemen (Romania)
Peter Liebers (Germany)
Michael Christian Martinez (Philippines)

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TL;DR Expect some great performances. Expect a lot of meltdowns too.